Supply Chain Scenario in India’s plans for additional power requirement in the XIIth five year plan.
A few issues needing high level intervention and brain banks to work on. A holistic all integrative approach is the need of the hour.
Much before talking the futuristic XIIth Plan projected figures of 1,02,000 MW, coming to the India’s power plans for the XIth Five Year Plan Period, there seems to be no authentic source of the actual plans. Various speeches by authorities connected with the power scenario in the country have been quoting different figures for the projected additional demand of power. The figures quoted have been ranging between 1,00,000 MW, 90,000 MW, 78,000 MW AND 58,000 MW
If we go back a little in to the immediate past history, In the Hindu Business Line of Sunday, May 15, 2005, Honourable Minister of Power, Mr. P.M. Sayeed has said the programme for the Eleventh Plan, which envisages adding 60,000 MW, is being finalized. The review is expected to show how each State Government would contribute to the additional power capacity. The South has been much better off in the power situation compared to the northern States, where, in some cases, there has been no addition to power generation in the last 10 years.
Well, whatever be the actual figures, it is a different thing to work on papers. However, when it comes to actually implementing the plans, we must take note of the past track record of implementation of such plan projections. There does seem to be a wide gap between the needs of the Supply Chain in the whole exercise. In the past, this critical issue of a synchronized Supply Chain Management has been grossly mismanaged, and hence the dismal performance and achievements of the planned targets.
Considering the past 62 years track record of Power generation additions since independence, it rose from about 1500 MW at the time of independence to about 1,40,000 MW as of date, i.e. an addition of about 1,38,500 MW in 62 years, giving an annual average of just about 1,38,500/62 or say just about 2230 MW per year or about 11,000 MW per plan period.
Although it holds good for almost all the plan periods, some figures pertaining to the 8th plan period may be of interest to note. When the initial estimated addition was put at 38,000 MW, the figures were changed very frequently from the initial 38,000 MW to 28,000 MW to 22,000 MW to 18,000 MW and finally to 12500 MW. As aginst these figures, in actual physical terms, only about 8,000 MW was commissioned during the 8th plan period, out of which a good part was the carry over of the 7th plan.
The story during the subsequent plan periods has been not much different. With such a track record, one can imaging what will be the fate of the XIth plan power scene.
While we may be able to actually plan on papers, however, coming to the ground realities, the over all impact of the plan will be on many different fronts. Unless these fronts are addressed right now, there is every likelihood that the actual achievement after the XIth plan period may not be more than about 25,000 MW. This statement is being made on the basis of the following facts.
Mere allocation of funds from the national exchequer or private investors is not going to be enough. Just the money can not assure implementation of huge projects like this. The mute question is “Whether we have the capacity to manufacture the critical equipment required for a power plant?” The main pieces of required equipment are the Turbines, the Transformers, the Switchgears etc. (Considering the ever depleting manpower strength of organizations like the BHEL (who have literally stopped fresh induction of manpower for ages, and have not fulfilled the vacancies created by the retirement and resignations of employees), the need for additional Transmission towers, the Distribution network, the electric conductors, the Belt conveyors, the Motors, the Fans, the Blowers, the Coal Mills, the ESPs, the Bag Filters etc. etc. to match with the projected figures?
The most crucial issue will be Non-availability of adequate make-up water for the thermal power projects.
Power evacuation and subsequent distribution in addition to containing T & D losses would also be a uphill task in the years to come.
Further, some of the present installations would reach their useful life by this period, requiring replacements and / or renovation / modernization (R & M).
Another point is the infrastructure requirement. For example, just one single item like Coal. To cater to a 66,000 MW additional capacity building (Considering that 66% of the total projected power would come through the Thermal route), @ a heat rate of 860 Kcals per kwh, and considering the over all thermal efficiencies of the power plants, an average representative power plant consumes about 700 gms. of coal per kwh generated, using the representative D-E grade coals.
This gives us a figure of about 17 to 18 railway rakes, each with 50 wagons of 50 MT capacity each to be hauled on the railway tracks every hour of the day and every day of the year. Then the issue would be to find enough of the river waters to cater to the about 26,000 MW through the Hydro route.
On Wednesday, 19 Mar 2008, (http://steelguru.com/news/index/2008/03/19/Mzk2Mjg%3D/CIL_urges_Indian_Railways_to_increase_wagons_supply.html) it was reported that CIL urged the Indian Railways to increase wagons supply.
Mr PS Bhattacharyya chairman of Coal India Limited while addressing at "Rail Coal Interface Meeting” requested Indian Railways to extend more cooperation and co ordination to step up coal movement by increased wagon supply. Rolling stock and infrastructure issues were also discussed at the meeting, which formulated a field wise wagon loading program in keeping with coal off take target.
Mr Bhattacharyya said that under CIL’s production plan, wagon requirement at the end of 11th Five year Plan would be around 32,500 wagons per day, indicating annualized growth rate of 10% in coming years. Of the incremental off take of 24 million tonnes, movement in 2007-08 by rail was about 8 million tonnes while overall coal transportation through rail was 55%. Coal imports would rise from 2008-09 and CIL would import coal too for domestic buyers. He added that "The 11th Plan is going to be different from the earlier plans in respect of quantum jump required in rate of coal production and evacuation."
Mr K Ranganath marketing director of CIL said that “Coal is shipped largely by Indian Railways and as volumes were large and distances longer, needs had changed. This could require new guidelines to work out the strategies in coal evacuation. While 21 thermal power stations as on date were at critical level carrying coal of less than 7 days, 11 were on the verge of becoming critical. Up gradation of existing tracks, including development of trunk corridors for coal traffic, and dedicated rolling stocks for coal traffic are vital necessities.”
He added that CIL’s total off take till February 2008 was 339 million tonnes, of which 170 million tonne was by rail up by 4.2% YoY compared to same period previous year. From a level of loading 22,150 four wheeled wagons per day between April 2007 and February 2008, CIL expected to improve loading to 24,016 four wheeled wagons a day in 2008-09.
Total coal off take for 2007-08 was expected to be 375 million tonnes, 24 million tonnes over the previous fiscal. Of this, 207 million tonnes would move by rail with major incremental loading from MCL, SECL, MCL and CCL fields. Wagon requirement was likely to increase to 25533 wagons per day for evacuating accumulated pithead stock. This meant more than 7% growth in wagon loading is projected for 2008-09, which could rise to 14% if stock liquidation program was implemented.
Mr RN Varma additional member of railway board said that coal continued to be the largest commodity for Indian Railway traffic and 65 million tonne increase in movement was expected in 2008-09. He added that infrastructure development and investment planning would be done to meet CIL’s demand. India Railways would bring in new technology and new wagons with higher axle load and reduce tare weight.
The moot question is “Do we have the railways in place to take this additional load of coal Transportation?” Unless the power plants are built at the pit heads. Considering the possibilities of location of future power plants in the coastal belts nearer to the Indian ports, they will still require all the haulage equipment and railway tracks.
Coming to the manpower front, and if we take lessons from what has been happening to the BHELs and the NTPCs who have been loosing their experienced manpower to the private players, do we have the required experienced man power. Considering the best norms, it requires about 0.8 manpower per MW, India would need an additional about 80,000 to 1,00,000 skilled executives, supervisors and workers for this purpose. Do we have them? OR can we produce them in five years span? This brings in to front the challenges of ensuring availability of trained and skilled manpower, thermal station engineers, generation experts, coal handling plants, crushers, coal mills, etc. etc.
Some other critical issues will be the availability of steel for all these constructions, Capability of BEML to supply all the earth moving machines, and so on and so forth.
The above two are just indicative figures. The same logic will hold good for rest of the input parameters.
Its time to sit down and think.
And do it fast too.
